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Comments can contain stories or thoughts about your own or others' potential biases (though be careful when inferring others' biases sometimes perceptions of bias can be biased). Bias reduction can improve interpersonal accuracy, improve decision making, reduce conflicts, and otherwise increase good will toward others.Ħ. Learn about the benefits of reducing bias. Learn about ways to reduce biases in yourself and others.ĥ. Read posts by me and others that show where and how these biases can appear.Ĥ. Learn about the consequences of bias, including making poor decisions and triggering or exacerbating interpersonal conflicts.ģ. Learn about the variety of interpersonal and self biases that you and your friends, coworkers, and family are at risk of committing.Ģ. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7, 411-426.ġ. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 5, 665-678. Hindsight bias: A primer for motivational researchers. Benefiting from multiple-choice exams: The positive impact of answer switching.
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Try to be open to the possibility that you are average. Most of us think we’re above average, but it cannot be most of us who are unbiased if the bias occurs on average. It’s as if we say to ourselves, “That bias only occurs on average, but I’m above average.” Be careful. But beware the above-average effect – most of us think we’re above average in good ways and that we’re not the biased ones. Some of us look back and correctly assess what we knew. ( Don’t forget: Biases usually occur just on average. In other words, the cause can be due to basic brain wiring (cognitive processes such as memory) or due to a less-than-conscious desire to see ourselves as more intelligent or to see the world as more orderly than is justified. The cause of this bias (as with many biases) can be cognitive or motivational. Events feel more predictable after the outcome is known than before. The bottom line is that, on average, we overestimate after the fact how much we knew. The hindsight bias literature has many other and more serious and complicated examples, including in medicine and business (e.g., Pezzo, 2011 Roese & Vohs, 2012). South Park illustrates this bias in its off-center South-Park way: If curious, click on the YouTube link below (or enter “South Park hindsight” in YouTube)… The football phrase for hindsight bias is Monday-morning quarterbacking. This phenomenon, of looking back and wondering why you chose a certain action when you now feel it was kind of obvious you should’ve chosen differently, is part of hindsight bias (aka the I-knew-it-all-along effect, though some researchers don’t like this flashier-sounding label). Research shows that, if anything, changing your answer probably leads to a higher test score (e.g., Di Milia, 2007). By the way, popular student wisdom says not to change your answers, but it probably doesn’t matter for most students. Upon learning of the mistake, my students sometimes say, “I knew the answer – I don’t know why I changed it.” Sure, sometimes that can be true. In school, on tests, sometimes students change their answers from the correct to an incorrect choice. It does beg the question, though, that if she knew, then why did she go the other way and lose the point. A player who guesses wrong might say, “I knew she was going to do that.” Maybe the player knew and maybe she didn’t. In a fast-paced hard-hitting game (say, against a Williams sister), you don’t always have time to wait and see – you have to start moving. In tennis, professionals sometimes have to make a guess as to whether their opponent is going to go cross or down the line. (Forgive me, ladies, for sticking with the male pronoun in this example I’m thinking of my own basketball days.)
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Sometimes in basketball, after a fake and a drive that lead to an easy lay-up and two points, the defender who got fooled says of the successful drive, “I knew he was going to do that.” Maybe the defender knew and maybe he didn’t.